Fargo, N.D. — How statistics can be applied to football will be discussed during the January Science Café on Tuesday, Jan. 31, at 7 p.m. in Stoker’s Basement, Hotel Donaldson.

Rhonda Magel, professor and chair of the statistics department at NDSU, and Michael Price, an undergraduate student majoring in mathematics, will demonstrate the application of statistics to two questions – does football momentum translate into points and can turnover margin help predict victory in a football game?

For the first question, the average number of points obtained from the possession following an interception or fumble recovery in the National Football League is compared with the average number of points obtained from a possession with a first down starting in the same location on the field. For the second question, the probability of a team winning the game is estimated based on turnover margin while controlling for home field advantage.

The model developed is used to predict the outcome of games in the next National Football League season. Attendees to the Science Café must be 21 or older or accompanied by a parent or guardian. Science Café, sponsored by NDSU’s College of Science and Mathematics, features a presentation by a scientist and time for discussion with the scientist and other attendees.